正文
获取原文件SKILL.md
中文导读
依据假设的重要程度和现有证据判断验证顺序，将高风险业务假设转为可执行的研究安排。
输入材料
- 项目假设与已有证据
- 业务目标和验证资源
交付结果
- 假设优先级
- 验证顺序与研究事项
阅读与使用
本页保存指定版本的原始 Skill 和配套文件，可查看中文导读、原文与参考资料。获取完整包后，按原文准备所需工具与材料。
来源仓库为 phuryn/pm-skills，采用 MIT 许可。Stars 表示仓库关注度，核验日期为 2026-10-15。分类表示适用的工作环节，实际执行条件以原文为准。
原始 Skill
Prioritize Assumptions
Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
Context
You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
Domain Context
ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.
Instructions
The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
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For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:
- Impact: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
- Risk: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
-
Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:
- Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
- High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
- Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
- High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it
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For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:
- Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
- Measures actual behavior, not opinions
- Has a clear success metric and threshold
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Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.
Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.